Smartphone market penetration is a curious trend. The smartphone market has exploded with handsets, phone OS versions, and a flooded App market. In 2006, 15% of the US population had a smartphone (a smartphone defined as an internet enabled cell phone). Today, 42% of the US population owns a smartphone and 78% of the US owns a cell phone (figures taken from http://www.emarketer.com/Article.aspx?R=1007363)
The benefit of having a smartphone is mobility. After purchasing my first smartphone, I became dependent on the features that came with a network connection in my pocket. Cell phones are not simply a phone and address book, the handsets most people carry are converged mobile devices able to pull, store and move data. The more connected the population becomes with emails, blogs, Twitter, and text messages, the more we will depend on advanced communication devices.
I am convinced the smartphone market will continue to exhibit strong growth for the next few years until the percent of smartphone owners is bounded by market saturation of the total percent of cell phone owners. The iPhone revolutionized the smartphone interface with simplicity and lowered the barrier of adoption for less technical users. Cell phones are made to be disposable. Every 2 years, each cell phone owner is solicited the opportunity to get the “latest and greatest” device on the market. Cell phones will increase in complexity and capability with the integration of increased processing power, more sensors, and better network connectivity.
My grandmother may never own a smartphone but barriers of adopting the latest mobile technology are the lowest in history. Technology is not devolving.